Study projects Komodo Airport terminal needs for 3.65 million passengers in 2042

Labuan Bajo — A terminal-capacity study hosted by Makassar Aviation Polytechnic projects Komodo Airport will need to handle about 3.65 million passengers per year by 2042, and concludes the passenger terminal should be expanded by 1,647 square metres to meet that demand.

The paper, titled Analisis Kebutuhan Luas Terminal Dengan Tingkat Kenyamanan Penumpang di Bandara Komodo Labuan Bajo, identifies aircraft movements and passenger numbers as the main drivers of airport development. It uses secondary data supplied by the Komodo Airport operator to model future traffic and space requirements.

According to the study, passenger numbers increased on average by 38.2% over the 2015–2019 period, forming the basis for a long-term projection of 3,652,630 passengers a year and 1,826 passengers in the airport’s busy hour by 2042. The paper’s findings section states that accommodating this growth would require expanding the passenger terminal area from 5,403 to 7,050 square metres.

What the study projects

The report’s projection table covers the years 2023 to 2042, described in the text as a 20-year planning horizon. It presents a steady annual increase in passenger numbers that reaches 3,652,630 by 2042, and applies a busy-hour coefficient of 0.05 to derive the 1,826 peak-hour passenger figure.

The study’s data table for the historical period records arriving and departing passengers separately. For 2019, it lists 346,505 arriving passengers and 347,510 departing passengers, giving a combined total of 694,015. The projection table itself does not explicitly state whether the forecast totals represent arriving and departing passengers combined, but they are presented alongside the historical data series.

Key figures cited in the study include:

• Recorded passengers in 2019: 694,015
• Projected passengers in 2023: 1,222,055
• Projected passengers in 2042: 3,652,630
• Reported average increase in passengers, 2015–2019: 38.2%
• Required terminal area in 2042: 7,050 square metres (an expansion of 1,647 square metres from 5,403 square metres)

Terminal implications and current capacity

The Makassar Aviation Polytechnic study frames its forecast as an input for long-term infrastructure planning rather than a statement of government policy or a confirmed construction programme. It recommends increasing the passenger terminal area by 1,647 square metres to maintain the level of comfort associated with the projected 2042 traffic.

Separate government information indicates that Komodo Airport’s terminal has already undergone a major expansion. The Ministry of Transportation reported in 2022 that terminal facilities had been enlarged to 13,366 square metres as part of a development programme that raised the airport’s capacity to around 1 million passengers per year. That official account shows the current terminal size is significantly larger than both the 5,403-square-metre baseline used in the study and the 7,050-square-metre target it proposes for 2042.

Earlier coverage of development plans for Komodo Airport also described domestic terminal expansion to about 6,500 square metres, along with runway extension and apron enlargement, as part of efforts to support tourism growth in Labuan Bajo. These figures, and the later 13,366-square-metre terminal area reported by the Ministry of Transportation, suggest that government-led development has moved beyond the smaller terminal footprint assumed in the academic paper.

Context and methodology

The Makassar Aviation Polytechnic study uses passenger and aircraft movement data from 2015 to 2019 as the historical basis for its projections. Over that period, the report notes substantial growth in passenger totals, which it summarises as an average increase of 38.2%. That growth profile is then extended over a 20-year horizon to estimate future passenger volumes and terminal-area requirements.

The paper treats the resulting figures as indicative of what would be needed to preserve passenger comfort at Komodo Airport as traffic grows. Other academic work on Komodo Airport terminal planning has produced larger space requirements using different methodologies and level-of-service assumptions, underlining that there is no single accepted forecast for future terminal size.

Sources

• Makassar Aviation Polytechnic journal article: "Analisis Kebutuhan Luas Terminal Dengan Tingkat Kenyamanan Penumpang di Bandara Komodo Labuan Bajo"
• Indonesian Ministry of Transportation press release on Komodo Airport development
• ITS thesis: "Perencanaan Fasilitas Terminal Penumpang Bandara Komodo Labuan Bajo Berdasarkan Variasi Jumlah Penumpang Tahunan"