BMKG Warns of Prolonged Dry Season and Fire Risk in Nusa Tenggara

Labuan Bajo — Indonesia’s meteorology agency BMKG has warned that a prolonged dry spell is affecting much of the country, with more than 60 consecutive days without rain now classified as “extreme” in many areas, including Bali and Nusa Tenggara. The agency’s early‑September assessments and weekly forecasts highlight elevated drought and fire risks for parts of East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), but do not publish a detailed, public list of NTT locations recording 66 to 94 rainless days.

In its national seven‑day forecast for 4–10 August 2026, BMKG reported that monitoring of “hari tanpa hujan” (consecutive dry days) showed thousands of observation points across Indonesia experiencing very long to extremely long dry spells, driven by a strong El Niño and the peak of the dry season in August. Subsequent weekly forecasts and climate analyses in late August and September indicated that conditions remained predominantly dry in southern Indonesia, including Bali and Nusa Tenggara, with many locations recording more than 60 days without rain.

BMKG’s mid‑September weekly forecast stated that 1,637 monitoring points were experiencing extremely long dry spells of more than 60 consecutive days without rainfall, mainly in southern parts of the archipelago such as Lampung, much of Java, southern Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, Maluku, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and southern Papua. According to BMKG, the dry season in 2026 began earlier than usual, with its peak expected in August across most regions, including all of Bali and Nusa Tenggara.

Dry season outlook for Bali and Nusa Tenggara

BMKG’s analysis of atmospheric dynamics for early September 2026 concluded that around 81.1 percent of Indonesia’s seasonal zones were still in the dry season. The same analysis and related forecasts projected that rainfall across most of the country would remain in the low to medium range, or about 0–150 millimetres per 10‑day period (dasarian), through late September and into early October.

BMKG defined low rainfall as less than 50 millimetres per 10‑day period and warned that such conditions were expected to dominate large parts of Sumatra’s south, all of Java, and most of Bali–Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua during the second and third 10‑day periods of September. A BMKG climate bulletin further noted that much of Bali and Nusa Tenggara would continue to experience dry season conditions at least into late September, with only localised showers forecast.

A report by Waingapu.Com, citing BMKG’s September outlook, echoed these assessments, highlighting that 567 seasonal zones — equivalent to 81.1 percent of Indonesia’s total — remained in the dry season in early September. According to that report, BMKG expected rainfall in Bali and Nusa Tenggara to stay generally low to moderate, with significant stretches of low rainfall in many districts.

Business exposure: water, agriculture and fire risk

While BMKG’s public documents focus on meteorological indicators rather than commercial data, they emphasise that prolonged dryness increases the risk of drought and land and forest fires, particularly in regions where the dry season is peaking. BMKG’s national releases urge agricultural and local authorities to strengthen preparedness for El Niño‑related impacts, including water scarcity, reduced soil moisture and heightened fire risk.

For agricultural and livestock businesses in NTT and neighbouring provinces, the main operational risk is reduced access to rain‑fed water during planting and grazing cycles. BMKG notes that the early and intense dry season in 2026 could constrain water availability, especially in areas reliant on local rainfall and shallow storage.

Waingapu.Com, summarising BMKG’s warnings, identifies agriculture and animal husbandry as sectors particularly vulnerable to a longer dry spell in NTT, given their dependence on rainfall and the potential for grassland and cropland to dry out.

Tourism operators in destinations such as Labuan Bajo and other parts of NTT may also face indirect exposure if local water systems come under pressure, although BMKG and the cited media reports do not provide evidence of specific shortages, rationing measures or disruptions to visitor services in September 2026. Likewise, no publicly available BMKG documents or independent news reports accessed for this article quantify production losses, price changes or business closures linked to the current dry conditions in NTT.

Official guidance and next steps

BMKG has called on national and regional authorities to anticipate the impacts of the 2026 dry season by integrating 10‑day rainfall forecasts, drought and fire‑risk monitoring, and early‑warning information into cross‑sector planning. The agency continues to update its assessments of dry‑season severity and the distribution of consecutive dry days through its official portal and public bulletins.

For businesses operating in NTT, the current information supports precautionary planning rather than a precise assessment of damage. Operators in agriculture, livestock and tourism may need to follow BMKG’s ongoing updates, track local water‑supply conditions and coordinate with regional authorities on drought and fire preparedness, as many districts in Bali and Nusa Tenggara are expected to remain in low‑rainfall conditions through at least late September 2026.

Sources

• BMKG – Prakiraan Cuaca Indonesia Sepekan Periode 4–10 Agustus 2026: Hari Tanpa Hujan Semakin Panjang, Ancaman Kekeringan dan Karhutla Semakin Nyata
• CNN Indonesia – BMKG Ungkap Ratusan Wilayah Tak Diguyur Hujan Lebih dari 2 Bulan
• IDX Channel – 81,1 Persen Wilayah Indonesia Masih Musim Kemarau
• Waingapu.Com