BMKG: Dry, El Niño‑Driven Conditions Dominate 15–21 September

Labuan Bajo — Indonesia is forecast to remain largely under dry, late‑dry‑season conditions through Monday, 21 September 2026, with most climate zones already in the dry season, according to the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The agency’s national outlook for 15–21 September warns that local rain and strong winds are still possible in parts of the country, alongside an elevated risk of wildfire and haze.

BMKG’s weekly rain potential bulletin for the 15–21 September period describes an atmosphere dominated by dry conditions and expanding areas affected by forest and land fires, while maintaining alerts for local rain and gusty winds in several regions of Indonesia. The document is a national assessment and does not provide destination‑specific forecasts for Labuan Bajo, West Manggarai or nearby marine areas.

For residents and visitors in Labuan Bajo, the main implications are precautionary. Prolonged dry conditions can increase fire risk in surrounding landscapes and contribute to smoke exposure if fires occur, but BMKG’s publication does not identify a particular fire, smoke plume or air‑quality episode around Flores.

Dry season coverage and extreme dry days

BMKG reports that around 81 percent of Indonesia’s seasonal climate zones (Zona Musim) had entered the dry season by the first ten‑day period of September 2026. This reflects a widespread shift to drier conditions across much of the archipelago as the country passes the typical peak of the dry season.

The agency also highlights a large number of locations that have recorded very long runs without rain. BMKG notes that 1,637 observation points had experienced more than 60 consecutive dry days, concentrated mainly in southern parts of Indonesia such as Lampung, much of Java, southern Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, Maluku, Bali, Nusa Tenggara and southern Papua.

Nusa Tenggara is included in this broad list, but the bulletin does not break figures down to individual districts or islands, so it cannot be used as a specific forecast for Labuan Bajo or the waters around Flores.

El Niño and extended dryness

BMKG links the dominant dry pattern to a very strong El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean. In its climate analysis, the agency reports that monitoring for the first ten‑day period of September 2026 showed a sea‑surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region of +2.76 degrees Celsius, indicating a strong warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

BMKG warns that this El Niño is expected to produce a drier and longer‑lasting dry season across much of Indonesia, increasing the risk of drought, wildfires and associated haze.

BMKG’s seasonal outlook also indicates that rainfall during the 2026 dry season is generally predicted to be below normal across a majority of Indonesia’s climate zones. This context underpins the weekly forecast emphasis on continuing vigilance for fires and smoke, even where short‑lived local showers may occur.

Implications for Labuan Bajo plans

Travellers planning island excursions, outdoor activities or boat trips in and around Labuan Bajo are advised to check the latest local weather forecast for West Manggarai before departure and to confirm conditions directly with operators. BMKG’s weekly national bulletin keeps open the possibility of local rain and strong winds in some parts of Indonesia, but it does not specify whether Labuan Bajo will be among the affected areas or provide detailed marine conditions for local ports.

Given the wider dry‑season context and BMKG’s warnings about wildfire and haze risk, visitors who encounter smoke should limit unnecessary exposure and follow guidance from local authorities. Port users and boat operators are also encouraged to monitor harbour notices and any official advisories during the forecast period, particularly if changing wind patterns or reduced visibility are reported locally.

Sources

• BMKG – Potensi Hujan Sepekan ke Depan (Prakiraan Cuaca Indonesia Sepekan Periode 15–21 September 2026)
• Metro TV News – Prakiraan BMKG Potensi Hujan 15–21 September, Ini Daftar Wilayahnya